The Elephant in the Room
As we sit here in mid-July and reflect on the first half of 2024 there is so much good news to talk about regarding the US economy, the global capital markets, and the exciting wave of technology innovation being driven by Artificial Intelligence. US markets have reached all times (S&P 500 closed the quarter at 5,460 +53% from its Oct. 12, 2022, low); US GDP rose 1.4% in Q1 and 2.9% Year over Year; Headline CPE moderated slightly to 3.3% and the Fed’s preferred metric PCE was at 2.6%, much closer to their 2% target. Outside of the US, emerging markets have returned 7.7% YTD through June and developed international markets have returned a solid 5.7% over the same period.¹
But none of this is making anyone feel better. The elephant in the room is the looming US election coming on November 5th. There is no denying that the stakes around the 2024 election have never been higher. While the Presidential race between President Biden and former President Trump dominates the headlines, both houses of Congress are up for grabs and many state legislators could swing from one party to the next. Not to mention the myriad of ballot initiatives, state supreme court justices and the list goes on.
This intense focus on the election makes sense – US Presidential elections do matter! And the policies of both candidates differ dramatically in areas around taxes, regulatory frameworks, foreign policy, trade policy, and monetary policy, all of which will impact the economy and markets.
As a result, we are hosting a live Webinar on July 23rd at 12pm Pacific Time to dive into all aspects of the coming election. We will touch on the historical connection between government policy and the stock market, the impact of the national debt, and how Congress plays into the equation.
Helping us unpack all of this is Apollo Lupescu PhD, Vice President at Dimensional and informally known as the “Professor of explaining stuff”. It promises to be a lively discussion and we encourage you to register now and invite your friends and family to join in.
You can register here:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_fEqXCVjbT3ikNSjA0xQhNQ
As always, we are here to answer any questions and we look forward to hearing from you on ways we can improve our ability to give you the peace of mind you deserve.
1. All economic and market data referenced in this paragraph is courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management Guide to the Markets.
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